RESEARCH ARTICLE


Evaluation of WRF-Forecasts Over Siberia: Air Mass Formation, Clouds and Precipitation



Debasish PaiMazumder1, David Henderson2, Nicole Molders*, 2
1 National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
2 University of Alaska Fairbanks, College of Natural Science and Mathematics, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, and Geophysical Institute, 903 Koyukuk Drive, P.O. Box 757320, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USA


© 2012 PaiMazumder et al.;

open-access license: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License (CC-BY 4.0), a copy of which is available at: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode. This license permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

* Address correspondence to this author at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, College of Natural Science and Mathematics, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, and Geophysical Institute, 903 Koyukuk Drive, P.O. Box 757320, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, USA; Tel: +1-907-474-7910; Fax: +1-907-474-7379; E-mails: molders@gi.alaska.edu, cmoelders@alaska.edu


Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run as a regional model without data assimilation or nudging (31 36h-simulations) for July and December 2005 over a limited area domain covering Siberia to examine weather formation in an air-mass source region. The WRF-results were compared to NCEP1/NCAR-reanalysis, International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre and Canadian Meteorological Centre data to assess model performance and identify shortcomings. WRF is capable of predicting air-mass formation. Simulation errors are within the error range of other models. The timing of best/worst agreement differs among quantities depending on their sensitivity to systematic (model deficiencies) and/or unsystematic errors (e.g. initial conditions). Overall, the WRF-results agree better with reanalysis for July than December. WRF-results and reanalysis agree best under persistent high pressure and worst during frontal passages and transition from one pressure regime to another. In July, WRF provides smaller diurnal amplitudes of 2m-temperature with up to 5.4 K lower, and 3.5 K higher values at 0000 and 1200 UTC than the reanalysis. In December, WRF overestimates 2m-temperature by 1.4 K. WRF-temperatures excellently agree with the reanalysis from 700 hPa to 300 hPa. Except during frontal passages, wind-speed shows positive bias. Typically root-mean-square errors and standard deviation of errors of wind-speed (temperature) increase (decrease) with height. In December, WRF has difficulty predicting the position and strength of the polar jet. WRF underestimates cloudiness and snow-depth, but overestimates precipitation. In July, predicted convective precipitation is related strongly to boundaries between different land-cover. WRF-predicted snow-depth strongly correlates with terrain and misses the observed fine features.

Keywords: Air mass, precipitation, cloudiness, WRF, evaluation.